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Numbers don’t lie, teams use advanced analysis

By , Globe Staff | Mar 3, 2012 04:39 AM

If the Celtics are going to move Rajon Rondo between now and the March 15 NBA trade deadline, odds are that president of basketball operations Danny Ainge is going to consult Michael Zarren.

If you’re a Celtics fans, you probably don’t know Zarren. The team wants it that way. The less that is known about Zarren and his methods the better. Go on the team’s website and there is no biography for him, even though he carries the title of assistant general manager. The Celtics guard his advanced statistical analysis like it’s the security code to owner Wyc Grousbeck’s house.

Ask the Green’s stats guru why the Celtics have been up and down this season and he all but pops a cyanide pill.

Zarren, who joined the team in 2003 as an intern, is Ainge’s database-devising aide de camp, dealing with new-age basketball stats such as Pace factor (average possessions a team uses per 48 minutes) and true shooting percentage (a team’s weighted shooting efficiency adjusted for 3-pointers and free throws). Zarren was also one of the stars of the sixth annual MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, which invaded the Hynes Convention Center yesterday and runs through today.

“If you’re a Celtics fan, we’re doing everything we can to make the team as good as we can,’’ said Zarren. “If you’re not a Celtics fan, maybe this is an interesting part of other sports that you don’t know about. It’s not stuff that everyone will be interested in, but like every other field that is becoming more scientific, this stuff is not going away.’’

If this conference had a tagline it would be, “And the geeks shall inherit the sports,’’ or “May the VORP [Value over Replacement Player] be with you.’’



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